Saturday, February 26, 2011
Saturday Oberservations
Today's temperature according to the Phillips Hall Metstation is 3.7 deg F with a wind chill of 3.6 deg F. The dew point is at -1 deg F. There is currently no wind. The barometer is at 1012.5 mb. And the relative humidity is at 80%. Today's skies were 100% covered with a blanket of stratus clouds and there was a light snow falling throughout the day. This map from ACCU weather shows that we have moved out of a high pressure system and are currently in a colder low pressure system.
I forecast more covered skies tomorrow with a chance of some moderate winds and snow flurries throughout the day.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Thursday and Friday's Observations
Yesterday was around 28 deg F with a sun around midday and then a blanket of stratus clouds across the late afternoon sky. There was a northwest wind at around 5 mph. Eau Claire was in a high pressure system.
Today the temperature is 12.4 deg F with the wind chill at -.2 deg F making it quick different from yesterday's warmth. The dew point is at -2.4 deg F. Relative humidity is at 51%. there is a 6 mph wind coming from the West.The barometer is at 1023.8 mb. The sky is fairly clear with a few wispy cirrus clouds scattered throughout the sky. this explains the colder temperatures since the clouds are not keeping our warmth in the lower troposphere. This picture from ACCU weather shows that (similar to yesterday) Eau Claire, WI remains in the High Pressure system.
Today the temperature is 12.4 deg F with the wind chill at -.2 deg F making it quick different from yesterday's warmth. The dew point is at -2.4 deg F. Relative humidity is at 51%. there is a 6 mph wind coming from the West.The barometer is at 1023.8 mb. The sky is fairly clear with a few wispy cirrus clouds scattered throughout the sky. this explains the colder temperatures since the clouds are not keeping our warmth in the lower troposphere. This picture from ACCU weather shows that (similar to yesterday) Eau Claire, WI remains in the High Pressure system.
I forecast that tomorrow will be colder as the jet stream (shown below from Intellicast) continues to allow winds from the north and Canada to spill into the Midwest.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Wednesday's Observations
Today was pretty nice for late February. Today's temp at the Phillips Metstation is 32.2 deg F with a windchill at 29.1deg F. The dewpoint is at 25.2 deg F. The wind is at 5mph from the south. The relative humidity is at 76%. The barometer is at 1014.9 mb today. The skies are clear. This surface map show the clear skies over Eau Claire but surrounding cities show complete cloud cover.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Nice job sandbagging Guys
These are my Theta Chi men sandbagging in Fargo, ND
Fraternity On A Sandbagging Mission
Fraternity On A Sandbagging Mission
Interesting Winter Weather Email
I forgot to post this this past weekend but I recieved this email forwarded through my mom on Friday Feb. 18th regarding the snow storm forecast. (Note she lives in Shorewood, MN which is in the southwest suburbs of the Twin Cities).
I thought The best part of this email was that it was written by a Geographer and not a Meterologist!
The weather models have settled on a decidedly major storm system for the
weekend over much of the region. The differences between the models are
still significant, but even through those differences one can see the
signal: this should be one of the winter's largest storms. The
precipitation amounts being generated by the models are both large, and
widespread, and the forecast amounts and the total coverage both keep
growing. The models are indicating that an area of 150-200 thousand square
miles (approximately twice the size of Minnesota) will receive over
three-quarters of an inch of precipitation, and that about 60-75% of that
area will see over an inch; that is enormous. We still have no clue what
kind of model errors will screw up the forecasts, and which way the models
will be wrong, but a big, wet, regional winter storm is on its way.
Perhaps an even more interesting question than, "how much precipitation
will fall," is, "what kind of precipitation will fall?" Indeed, this system
is big and sloppy, and some of its temperature characteristics, especially
early on, resemble what we used to see a lot of in mid/late March. Maybe
February is the new March. Anyway, it is clear that some places, probably
in southeastern Iowa, far southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois, are
going to see rain, and even heavy rain, and maybe even heavy rain with
lightning and thunder. But even some of those areas may start as freezing
rain, sleet, or even snow, and they certainly should end as light snow when
colder air works into the system. Moreover, even areas that end up getting
a decent amount of snow and sleet may have a period of rain mixed in early
on Sunday before the colder pushes in.
This system does have some ice storm potential, but realizing that
potential is contingent on keeping temperatures at the surface below
freezing while pumping in much warmer air aloft. This looks most likely
over parts of South Dakota, northwest Iowa, far southern Minnesota, and a
stripe of southwestern Wisconsin. Again, though, areas that experience
mostly rain also may see a period of freezing rain, as may areas seeing
mostly sleet and snow; and even in places that do receive significant
freezing rain, a period of liquid-only rain is also a good bet, as is a
snowy ending.
Now for snow: the area north and west of the Twin Cities is the only one in
*all* the models to have almost all of its precipitation fall as snow. So,
St. Cloud is likely to see all snow, or almost all snow. Same with
Alexandria, and Pine City. One problem, however, is that those areas are a
bit more iffy for the big precipitation amounts; some models have them in,
some have them out. One model is coming in with 12-18 of snow in those
areas; another looks more like 6-12, and yet another is showing more like
3-6 inches. If you blend the models together, or take their average, Twin
Cities area has much higher precipitation amounts than those places, and a
correspondingly higher probability of what we call "warning criteria
snow"--snowfall amounts large enough to warrant a winter storm warning.
But, Minneapolis has some issues concerning precipitation type, with snow
totals ranging from 8 to up to 18 inches. Do note the range, though: no
model is showing less than 8 inches of snow in the Twin Cities, and the
lowest model is cutting into the totals with a period of sleet and freezing
rain at the beginning.
As with everything else, the models exhibit some differences regarding when
the precipitation begins, when the *heaviest* precipitation begins, when
the whole things winds down, and how long precipitation of a certain type
is falling at any given location. But again, some things are clear. The
precipitation will begin in most places on Saturday night--maybe early in
the night, maybe late. By Sunday morning, however, it will be game-on,
pretty much everywhere (Chicago may miss the bulk of this storm, but it
will be close, and in any case would be mostly rain). Don't look for signs
of this thing to the west on Saturday, because you won't find much. The
ingredients fueling the intensification of it are going to be materializing
overhead, and once the precipitation begins, it won't take very long to
reach maximum intensity. Expect the heaviest precipitation on Sunday and
into Sunday night, depending on where you are, with a band of
light-moderate snow persisting over much of the area into Monday morning.
Winds will become intense on Sunday, and this is going to have some
white-out and blizzardy elements in open areas.
Expect some changes to the finer points of the forecast, but unless the
system does a complete head-fake, I would expect a major winter storm over
the region on Sunday.
Kenneth A. Blumenfeld, Ph.D.
Dept. of Geography, UMN; Dept. of Nat. Sciences, Metro State Univ. (MN)
weekend over much of the region. The differences between the models are
still significant, but even through those differences one can see the
signal: this should be one of the winter's largest storms. The
precipitation amounts being generated by the models are both large, and
widespread, and the forecast amounts and the total coverage both keep
growing. The models are indicating that an area of 150-200 thousand square
miles (approximately twice the size of Minnesota) will receive over
three-quarters of an inch of precipitation, and that about 60-75% of that
area will see over an inch; that is enormous. We still have no clue what
kind of model errors will screw up the forecasts, and which way the models
will be wrong, but a big, wet, regional winter storm is on its way.
Perhaps an even more interesting question than, "how much precipitation
will fall," is, "what kind of precipitation will fall?" Indeed, this system
is big and sloppy, and some of its temperature characteristics, especially
early on, resemble what we used to see a lot of in mid/late March. Maybe
February is the new March. Anyway, it is clear that some places, probably
in southeastern Iowa, far southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois, are
going to see rain, and even heavy rain, and maybe even heavy rain with
lightning and thunder. But even some of those areas may start as freezing
rain, sleet, or even snow, and they certainly should end as light snow when
colder air works into the system. Moreover, even areas that end up getting
a decent amount of snow and sleet may have a period of rain mixed in early
on Sunday before the colder pushes in.
This system does have some ice storm potential, but realizing that
potential is contingent on keeping temperatures at the surface below
freezing while pumping in much warmer air aloft. This looks most likely
over parts of South Dakota, northwest Iowa, far southern Minnesota, and a
stripe of southwestern Wisconsin. Again, though, areas that experience
mostly rain also may see a period of freezing rain, as may areas seeing
mostly sleet and snow; and even in places that do receive significant
freezing rain, a period of liquid-only rain is also a good bet, as is a
snowy ending.
Now for snow: the area north and west of the Twin Cities is the only one in
*all* the models to have almost all of its precipitation fall as snow. So,
St. Cloud is likely to see all snow, or almost all snow. Same with
Alexandria, and Pine City. One problem, however, is that those areas are a
bit more iffy for the big precipitation amounts; some models have them in,
some have them out. One model is coming in with 12-18 of snow in those
areas; another looks more like 6-12, and yet another is showing more like
3-6 inches. If you blend the models together, or take their average, Twin
Cities area has much higher precipitation amounts than those places, and a
correspondingly higher probability of what we call "warning criteria
snow"--snowfall amounts large enough to warrant a winter storm warning.
But, Minneapolis has some issues concerning precipitation type, with snow
totals ranging from 8 to up to 18 inches. Do note the range, though: no
model is showing less than 8 inches of snow in the Twin Cities, and the
lowest model is cutting into the totals with a period of sleet and freezing
rain at the beginning.
As with everything else, the models exhibit some differences regarding when
the precipitation begins, when the *heaviest* precipitation begins, when
the whole things winds down, and how long precipitation of a certain type
is falling at any given location. But again, some things are clear. The
precipitation will begin in most places on Saturday night--maybe early in
the night, maybe late. By Sunday morning, however, it will be game-on,
pretty much everywhere (Chicago may miss the bulk of this storm, but it
will be close, and in any case would be mostly rain). Don't look for signs
of this thing to the west on Saturday, because you won't find much. The
ingredients fueling the intensification of it are going to be materializing
overhead, and once the precipitation begins, it won't take very long to
reach maximum intensity. Expect the heaviest precipitation on Sunday and
into Sunday night, depending on where you are, with a band of
light-moderate snow persisting over much of the area into Monday morning.
Winds will become intense on Sunday, and this is going to have some
white-out and blizzardy elements in open areas.
Expect some changes to the finer points of the forecast, but unless the
system does a complete head-fake, I would expect a major winter storm over
the region on Sunday.
Kenneth A. Blumenfeld, Ph.D.
Dept. of Geography, UMN; Dept. of Nat. Sciences, Metro State Univ. (MN)
Tuesday's Observations
Surprise! I can see the sun this afternoon! So it finally stopped snowing last night. I actually had to climb over snow mountains to get home last night. As for today... The temperature is 26.4 deg F at the Phillips Hall Metstation with a windchill at 19.9 deg F. The dew point is at 15.4 deg F and we have a southwest wind at 5mph. The barometer reads 1023.9mb. And the sky is about 20% covered with altocumulus clouds.
This map from ACCU weather shows that the midwest is currently in a high pressure system with no imminent fronts moving through in the forecast for the day or night.
This map from ACCU weather shows that the midwest is currently in a high pressure system with no imminent fronts moving through in the forecast for the day or night.
I predict that tomrrow will be cool with highs in the mid 20's.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Monday's Observations
It is still snowing here in Eau Claire... the current estimates are approximately 11" of snow and still more to fall throughout the early evening. The current temperature is 17.8 deg F at the Phillips Hall Metstation. The wind chill is at 6.6 deg F. The dewpoint is at 14.5 deg F. And we have a moderate but gusting wind at 15 mph from the East to Northeast. The barometer is at 1015.2 mb. And visiblity is around 3/4 to 1 mile (a little better than yesterday). This radar shows that this winter system has moved little from yesterday's placement meaning that the Twin Cities, MN was just getting slammed with snowfall last night.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Sunday's Observations
SO I know I didn't post on Friday or Saturday and I missed a bunch of great weather information. Eau Clair eis currently covered in snow. It started falling rapidly at around 10am this morning. Since then over 3 inches have fallen and accumulating rapidly. The temperature is currently 27.5 deg F the wind chill is 18 deg F. The dew point is at 26.8 deg F. The sky is currently 100% covered with cumulus clouds. Precipitation is falling in the form of snow. Visibility is about 1/4 of a mile. the barometer reads 1012.2mb. There is a wind from the NE at around 10mph. The radar shown show the band of the snow storm that is covering the MN and WI region.
The roads are even so bad in this region that the I-94 is shut down between the Twin Cities and Eau Claire by the Department of Transportation. I hope everyone just drives safe. I'm setltle in with my favorite cup of hot cocoa and watch it pile up outside my door.
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